Unemployment Trend
YELLOW
Current Read
Rising (3m slope +)
Labor softening is building but not yet a full shock.
Updated:2026-02-24
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Cockpit v2.1
AI Regime Dashboard
A motion-first macro cockpit for AI-era investing: signals, tripwires, scenario probabilities, and action rules.
Regime Probability
Base Case
Productivity
+ Fragility
+ Fragility
Soft Landing AI Boom30%
Productivity + Fragility (Base)50%
Reflexive Downturn20%
Action Engine
System Directive
De-risk 10–20%, increase convex hedges, rotate from weak-moat intermediation into durable AI infra.
Rule: if 2+ tripwires fire in same week, reduce gross risk 10–20%.
Credit Spreads
YELLOW
Current Read
Widening
Risk appetite fading; financing stress worth hedging.
Updated:2026-02-24
Enterprise SaaS Discounting
RED
Current Read
Broadening
Agentic build-vs-buy pressure is now hitting pricing power.
Updated:2026-02-24
AI Capex Momentum
GREEN
Current Read
Strong
Infrastructure cycle remains intact.
Updated:2026-02-24
Intermediation Fee Pressure
YELLOW
Current Read
Early signs
Friction-tax models showing first compression signals.
Updated:2026-02-24
Market Dispersion
RED
Current Read
High
Single-index views are less useful; pair trades favored.
Updated:2026-02-24
Open CIO Memo →
One-page posture, risk framing, and decision rules.
Open Watchlist CSV →
Editable template for assets, tripwires, and review cadence.