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AI Regime Dashboard

A motion-first macro cockpit for AI-era investing: signals, tripwires, scenario probabilities, and action rules in one place.

Backstory + How to Use This Dashboard

This system was built from the "AI productivity + macro fragility" scenario: AI can win while parts of the economy destabilize. Use it as a decision framework, not a prophecy.

  1. Check scenario probabilities and action engine first.
  2. Read traffic-light signals for regime shifts.
  3. Confirm clustering via tripwire heatmap.
  4. Use themes + evidence to rebalance with discipline.

Regime Probability Dial

Base Regime
Productivity + Fragility
Soft Landing AI Boom30%
Productivity + Fragility (Base)50%
Reflexive Downturn20%

Action Engine

De-risk 10–20%, increase convex hedges, rotate from weak-moat intermediation into durable AI infra.

Rule: if 2+ tripwires fire in same week, reduce gross risk 10–20%.

Unemployment Trend

YELLOW
Value: Rising (3m slope +)
Labor softening is building but not yet a full shock.
Updated: 2026-02-24

Credit Spreads

YELLOW
Value: Widening
Risk appetite fading; financing stress worth hedging.
Updated: 2026-02-24

Enterprise SaaS Discounting

RED
Value: Broadening
Agentic build-vs-buy pressure is now hitting pricing power.
Updated: 2026-02-24

AI Capex Momentum

GREEN
Value: Strong
Infrastructure cycle remains intact.
Updated: 2026-02-24

Intermediation Fee Pressure

YELLOW
Value: Early signs
Friction-tax models showing first compression signals.
Updated: 2026-02-24

Market Dispersion

RED
Value: High
Single-index views are less useful; pair trades favored.
Updated: 2026-02-24

Open CIO Memo

One-page posture, risk framing, and decision rules.

Open Watchlist CSV

Editable template for assets, tripwires, and review cadence.